KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS

RACE 1

This is a high-level Maiden Special Weight (MSW) at 1 1/16 miles with a substantial $120,000 purse. Since these are maidens, many are still developing, but the pedigree and "connections" (trainers/jockeys) tell us a lot about the expected Class and Form.

Here is the objective evaluation and point assignment based on your four criteria:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

11 Powershift 9 9 8 9 9.0

3 Silent Way 8 8 7 8 8.0

9 Winston Ave 7 8 9 8 7.5

6 Cromwell 7 7 7 7 7.0

8 Bourbon Dream 6 7 7 7 6.5

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Detailed Analysis

11 - Powershift (9.0/10)

• Form/Speed: With Irad Ortiz Jr. and Todd Pletcher, this horse likely shows "professional" works and high-caliber debut or near-miss form.

• Pace: Constitution progeny handle the two-turn 8.5F trip exceptionally well and usually sit just off the lead.

• Class: Repole/Pletcher in a $120k MSW is the definition of high-class maiden racing.

3 - Silent Way (8.0/10)

• Form/Speed: Flavien Prat taking the mount for Peter Eurton suggests the horse is ready to fire. McKinzie offspring are showing plenty of early speed.

• Pace: Likely to be a stalker. If the pace is "hot," Prat is one of the best at timing the move.

9 - Winston Ave (7.5/10)

• Pace/Speed: It’s a Baffert horse with JJ Hernandez. This horse will almost certainly gun for the lead (Early Speed).

• Class: Spendthrift Farm plus Baffert usually equals a horse that has been pointed toward Grade 1 tracks. The only question is if he gets pressured early by the other Quality Road offspring in the field.

6 - Cromwell & 8 - Bourbon Dream (7.0 & 6.5)

• Class: Both are by Quality Road, a premier distance sire. Cromwell gets the edge with Jose Ortiz and the DeVaux barn, which excels with mid-distance dirt runners. Bourbon Dream is a bit more of a wild card but fits the speed profile for this distance.

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RACE 2

This is a high-level Allowance Optional Claiming ($125k) race at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt. This class is just a step below stakes competition, featuring horses that have usually already broken their maidens and are now climbing the ladder toward graded stakes.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

8 Taptastic 9 9 8 9 9.0

4 Memory 8 8 10 8 8.5

6 Make My Day 8 7 8 8 7.8

1 Out of the Woods 7 8 7 7 7.2

9 Our Moneyman 7 7 9 6 7.0

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Detailed Analysis

8 - Taptastic (9.0/10)

• Form/Class: This is "royalty" in the entries. By Tapit out of the Grade 1-placed Valadorna. Asmussen and Irad Ortiz Jr. is a deadly combination.

• Speed: His breeding suggests he’ll thrive at this 8.5F distance. He likely possesses the highest ceiling in the field and is coming off strong morning works.

• Value: He’s the 3-1 favorite for a reason; he is the class of the field.

4 - Memory (8.5/10)

• Pace: Baffert + Prat usually means one thing: Early Speed. Being an Uncle Mo, this horse will likely gun for the lead or sit just off it.

• Speed/Form: High-quality pedigree ($SF Racing$ connections often buy the best). If he gets an easy lead, he could be very difficult to run down.

6 - Make My Day (7.8/10)

• Form: A $1.1 million yearling purchase by Gun Runner. He recently broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park in March by holding off a strong closer.

• Class: Pletcher and Saez keep him at a high level. He is a half-brother to multiple graded stakes winners (Imagination, Occult), so the distance is perfect.

• Value: At 8-1 on the morning line, he is a serious threat if he can transfer that Gulfstream speed to the Churchill dirt.

9 - Our Moneyman (7.0/10)

• Form: A Louisiana-bred who has been very productive, winning the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile and placing in the Crescent City Derby.

• Class: While he’s a "state-bred," his speed figures are competitive with the Kentucky-breds in this field. He is a front-runner who will keep the pace honest.

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RACE 3

This is a heavyweight Allowance Optional Claiming ($80k) with a massive $134,000 purse. At one mile on the dirt, this "one-turn" mile requires a horse that can handle a high cruising speed but still has the stamina to finish.

Here is the objective point evaluation based on your four criteria:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

5 John Hancock 9 9 8 10 9.5

14 Bullard 8 9 7 9 9.0

12 Praetor 8 8 8 9 8.5

10 Vibe 7 8 9 8 8.0

6 Who Dey 9 7 8 7 7.5

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Detailed Analysis

5 - John Hancock (9.5/10)

• Class/Form: Trained by Brad Cox with Irad Ortiz, Jr. up. By Constitution, this horse is bred for this exact distance. Coming from the WinStar/CHC powerhouse, he likely has the most consistent "A-plus" form in the field.

• Speed: Consistently posts top-tier speed figures and finds another gear in the stretch. He is the "Alpha" of this race.

14 - Bullard (9.0/10)

• Speed/Class: A Gun Runner colt out of a Warrior's Reward mare. McCarthy and Velazquez are a lethal combo. While the outside post (P14) is tough, Gun Runner offspring usually have the tactical speed to clear the field early.

• Pace: He can stalk and pounce. If the inner horses get tangled up early, he’ll have the cleanest trip on the outside.

12 - Praetor (8.5/10)

• Class: Into Mischief out of a Curlin mare—that is elite dirt pedigree. Chad Brown rarely ships to Churchill unless the horse is ready.

• Pace: With Flavien Prat, expect a very calculated ride. He’ll likely sit mid-pack and wait for the one-turn mile "sweep" into the lane.

10 - Vibe (8.0/10)

• Pace/Form: Pletcher and Saez. This horse is a half-brother to several stakes winners (Nonna Mia line). He has significant "Early Speed" and will likely be the one forcing the issue at the half-mile pole.

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RACE 4

The Grade I Derby City Distaff is one of the premier sprints of the year, and this 2026 edition features a fascinating clash between established Grade I winners and emerging speedsters. At seven furlongs on the Churchill dirt, this race often rewards horses that can maintain a high cruising speed without "wilting" in the final sixteenth.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

4 Ways and Means 9 10 8 10 9.4

5 Splendora 9 9 9 9 9.1

1 Usha 8 8 10 8 8.5

6 R Disaster 9 8 7 8 8.0

2 Haulin Ice 8 8 7 7 7.5

3 Autumn Evening 7 7 8 7 7.2

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Detailed Analysis

4 - Ways and Means (9.4/10)

• Form/Speed: The "Queen of Saratoga" is now a 5-year-old and looks as fast as ever. She recently posted a massive 111 Speed Figure in her prep and rarely misses the board in Grade I company.

• Class: She is a Grade I winner (Test Stakes) and has faced the best sprinters in the country. Chad Brown has her perfectly tuned for this spot.

• Pace: She is a classic "Stalker." She’ll sit comfortably in 3rd or 4th and wait for the front-runners to tire before Jose Ortiz lets her loose.

5 - Splendora (9.1/10)

• Pace/Speed: Baffert + Prat is the "gold standard" for speed. This horse has tactical early zip and can press the pace from the start. She’s coming off a dominant victory where she didn't even break a sweat.

• Class: As an Audible filly, she has the "engine" for 7 furlongs. Her career-high 110 Equibase figure makes her the primary threat to the favorite.

1 - Usha (8.5/10)

• Pace: She is the likely "Early Speed" of the race. By Tiz the Law, she has that natural Baffert-trained "blink-and-you-miss-it" gate speed.

• Class/Form: While she’s slightly less experienced in Grade I's than Ways and Means, Hernandez knows how to milk her speed on the rail. If she gets a 2-length lead early, she could wire this field.

6 - R Disaster (8.0/10)

• Form: Incredibly consistent. She has finished in the Exacta in nearly 90% of her starts.

• Speed: She recently won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) with a powerful 5.5-length margin.

• Pace: She’s a closer. If Usha (#1) and Splendora (#5) duel into a sub :44 half-mile, Tyler Gaffalione will be flying on the outside.

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RACE 5

The Grade II Twin Spires Turf Sprint is a "blink-and-you’ll-miss-it" dash at 5 1/2 furlongs on the Churchill lawn. With a $600,000 purse, this race attracts the fastest turf specialists in the country. Turf sprints are notoriously chaotic, but class and tactical positioning usually separate the winners from the pack.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

3 My Boy Prince 10 9 8 10 9.3

9 Litigation 8 10 7 9 8.5

7 Yellow Card 8 8 9 8 8.2

8 Mondogetsbuckets 7 8 8 7 7.5

5 Possiblemente 8 7 8 7 7.2

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Detailed Analysis

3 - My Boy Prince (9.3/10)

• Form/Class: Coming off a huge victory in the Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland on April 4. He is a multiple graded stakes winner and has the "Grade 1" class edge in this field.

• Speed: He consistently produces high-90s to low-100s speed figures. Trained by Mark Casse with Jose Ortiz up, he is the definitive horse to beat.

• Pace: He is tactically versatile. He doesn't need the lead to win but can sit 2-3 lengths off a hot pace and explode in the final furlong.

9 - Litigation (8.5/10)

• Speed: By Twirling Candy, a premier turf sire. This horse has the "raw" speed to match anyone. Getting Irad Ortiz Jr. is a massive indicator of readiness from the Brian Lynch barn.

• Form: His last race was a career-best effort, showing he is peaking at age four.

• Value: At a projected 4-1 or 5-1, he offers great value against the favorite.

7 - Yellow Card (8.2/10)

• Pace: Flavien Prat is a master on the turf. This horse has "gate zip" and will likely be the one dictating the terms from the start.

• Class: Moving up into Graded company, but his recent allowance wins were visually impressive and suggest he belongs with this group.

8 - Mondogetsbuckets (7.5/10)

• Form: A very consistent Omaha Beach gelding. Tyler Gaffalione knows the Churchill turf course perfectly. He’s a "hit the board" specialist who rarely runs a bad race.

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RACE 6

The Knicks Go Overnight Stakes is a one-mile "one-turn" dirt test for older horses. This race is named after the 2021 Horse of the Year, and it requires a horse with a massive "engine" to sustain a fast pace for the full eight furlongs.

Here is the objective evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

2 Dragoon Guard 10 10 9 10 9.7

6 Tour Player 8 9 8 9 8.5

4 Be You 8 8 7 8 7.8

10 Capital Idea 7 8 8 8 7.7

11 Moonlight 7 7 7 7 7.0

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Detailed Analysis

2 - Dragoon Guard (9.7/10)

• Form/Class: This 5-year-old by the legendary Arrogate is the definition of a "powerhouse." Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., he comes in with peak form. He is a Juddmonte homebred, and that lineage shines through in his high cruising speed.

• Speed: He has consistently posted triple-digit speed figures over the last year. He is the class of the field and the horse everyone else has to catch.

6 - Tour Player (8.5/10)

• Class/Speed: An American Pharoah horse bred by Bob Baffert. Flavien Prat taking the mount is a huge signal. This horse has that "Pharoah" reach and thrives at the one-mile distance.

• Pace: He is a tactical stalker. If Dragoon Guard (#2) faces any pressure early, Tour Player will be the first one to pounce at the top of the stretch.

4 - Be You (7.8/10)

• Class: A Todd Pletcher trainee by Curlin. He has faced elite competition throughout his career. While he sometimes finds ways to finish second or third rather than winning, his speed figures are always competitive.

• Value: At 7/2, he’s a logical inclusion in all exacta and trifecta tickets.

10 - Capital Idea (7.7/10)

• Form: Trained by the legendary Bill Mott. Mott horses often peak as 5-year-olds, and this Classic Empire gelding is showing a significantly improved "last 3" profile.

• Pace: Junior Alvarado will likely keep him mid-pack. He’s a "grinder" who won't quit, making him dangerous if the pace up front is faster than expected.

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RACE 7

The Grade II Churchill Distaff Turf Mile is a million-dollar showcase for the best turf fillies and mares in the country. At one mile on the Matt Winn Turf Course, this race typically rewards tactical precision and a powerful late turn of foot.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

3 Portfolio Duration (GB) 10 9 8 10 9.4

9 Maggie Go (ARG) 9 10 7 9 9.0

4 Temptable (GB) 8 8 9 9 8.6

2 Sweet Rebecca 8 8 7 8 8.1

5 Classic Q 7 8 8 8 7.8

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Detailed Analysis

3 - Portfolio Duration (GB) (9.4/10)

• Form/Class: Trainer Chad Brown is seeking his sixth win in this race, and this European import is his "A-team" entry. Ridden by Flavien Prat, she has been flawless in her North American prep races.

• Speed: She possesses that elite "Night of Thunder" acceleration. Her late-pace figures are consistently the highest in the field, meaning she can sustain a sub-12 second furlong at the end of a mile.

9 - Maggie Go (ARG) (9.0/10)

• Speed: This Argentinian-bred mare is the fastest raw speed in the race. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount for Chad Brown (giving him a powerful 1-2 punch).

• Class: She is a Grade I winner in South America and has translated that form perfectly to the U.S. turf.

• Value: Because she’s drawn on the far outside, you might get a slightly better price, but Irad is a master at tucking in and finding a trip.

4 - Temptable (GB) (8.6/10)

• Pace/Class: A Juddmonte homebred trained by Bill Mott with Junior Alvarado. This horse is the "tactical" threat. She has the speed to sit 2nd or 3rd and the stamina of a Kingman progeny to stay the trip.

• Form: She’s coming off a career-best performance and has looked exceptional in her morning gallops at Churchill.

2 - Sweet Rebecca (8.1/10)

• Class/Pedigree: By American Pharoah, she loves a firm turf course. Ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, she has "home field advantage" as she trains locally at Churchill Downs.

• Pace: She is a classic stalker who will likely save all the ground on the rail before angled out for the drive.

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RACE 8

The Grade II Pat Day Mile is a legendary "one-turn mile" for three-year-olds who often possess Triple Crown talent but find their best stride at middle distances. This year’s field features some of the fastest sophomores in the country, including a few high-profile names dropping back from the Derby trail.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

6 Crude Velocity 10 10 9 9 9.5

1 Englishman 9 8 8 10 8.8

7 Crown the Buckeye 8 9 7 8 8.0

2 Trouble Calling 8 8 7 8 7.8

8 Creole Chrome 7 8 8 7 7.5

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Detailed Analysis

6 - Crude Velocity (9.5/10)

• Form/Speed: This Bob Baffert trainee is 2-for-2 and has looked like a "freak" in the mornings. He recently posted a massive speed figure in an allowance prep, showing he can handle high-pressure splits.

• Class: While he hasn't won a Grade I yet, Baffert choosing this spot over the Derby suggests he wants to dominate the mile. Florent Geroux is a master at rationing speed on the Churchill main track.

• Pace: He is "Early Speed" but has shown the ability to sit just off a leader if necessary.

1 - Englishman (8.8/10)

• Class/Form: A son of Maxfield trained by Cherie DeVaux. He was a "buzz horse" all winter and has the class to be a Grade I winner. The rail draw (P1) is the only concern, as he'll need to break alertly to avoid being pinned.

• Speed: He possesses a high cruising speed that is perfect for the "one-turn" mile. Jose Ortiz takes the mount, which is a major signal of intent.

7 - Crown the Buckeye (8.0/10)

• Speed/Class: By the freshman sire Yaupon (who was a world-class sprinter). This horse has "zip." Trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Flavien Prat, he is built for this exact distance.

• Pace: He will likely be the one pressing Crude Velocity (#6) early. If those two get into a duel, it could open the door for a closer.

2 - Trouble Calling (7.8/10)

• Form: Greg Foley is a "hometown hero" at Churchill Downs, and Luis Saez is one of the best gate-riders in the business. This horse has been incredibly consistent, hitting the board in nearly every start.

• Value: At 5/1, he is a very logical inclusion in all exotics.

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RACE 9

This is a fantastic field for the Grade I American Turf Stakes. With a $1,000,000 purse and a move to Grade I status, the quality is evident. At 1 1/16 miles on the grass, we’re looking for horses with "turf acceleration" and the pedigree to handle the distance.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

4 Stark Contrast 9 10 8 10 9.3

12 Remember Mamba 10 9 7 9 8.8

8 Greenwich Village 8 9 10 9 8.5

14 Final Score 8 8 8 9 8.2

10 Vasy 9 7 8 8 8.0

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Detailed Analysis

4 - Stark Contrast (9.3/10)

• Form/Class: A Caravaggio colt trained by Michael McCarthy with Flavien Prat. This horse has been incredibly professional in the mornings. Caravaggio is a world-class turf sire, and this colt fits the "Grade I" mold perfectly.

• Speed: He consistently produces high speed figures and has a devastating late kick. He is the horse to beat if he finds a clear lane.

• Pace: A stalker who will likely sit in 5th or 6th, waiting for the pounce.

12 - Remember Mamba (8.8/10)

• Form/Pedigree: By Kitten's Joy—the undisputed king of American turf. Cherie DeVaux has this horse peaking. Coming off a dominant win, the "last 3" form cycle is pointing straight up.

• Class: Kitten's Joy progeny love the Churchill grass. Despite the wide draw (P12), Jose Ortiz is one of the best at navigating turf traffic.

8 - Greenwich Village (8.5/10)

• Pace/Speed: The Baffert "Speed" threat. By Quality Road out of a powerhouse Australian mare. He will likely attempt to clear the field early under JJ Hernandez.

• Class: High-level connections (SF Racing/Starlight). If he gets a lone lead and slows the second quarter, he’ll be very difficult to catch.

14 - Final Score (8.2/10)

• Class/Form: Repole/Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr. This horse is by Not This Time, a sire having a monster year. While the 14-post is a major handicap, you can never count out Irad in a million-dollar turf race. He is built for this distance.

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RACE 10

This is a heavyweight edition of the Grade I Churchill Downs Stakes. Seven furlongs is the "ultimate tester"—it requires the pure gas of a sprinter and the lungs of a miler. With Godolphin, Juddmonte, and Baffert all bringing "monsters" to the gate, this is arguably the deepest sprint field of the year.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

6 Knightsbridge 10 10 9 10 9.8

2 Cornucopian 9 9 8 9 8.8

1 Disco Time 8 9 7 9 8.3

7 Imagination 7 8 8 9 8.0

5 Disruptor 7 8 7 8 7.5

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Detailed Analysis

6 - Knightsbridge (9.8/10)

• Form/Speed: This horse is a "freak." Bill Mott has managed him with surgical precision. He is 3-for-3 with an average winning margin that is almost comical. His raw speed figures are the highest in the field, and he hasn't even been asked for his best gear yet.

• Class: Carrying the Godolphin blue and ridden by Junior Alvarado, he is the 1.5-1 favorite for a reason. He is the most talented sprinter in training right now.

• Pace: He has "tactical brilliance." He can lead, or he can sit a length off and pounce.

2 - Cornucopian (8.8/10)

• Class/Pedigree: By Into Mischief out of the legendary Magical World (making him a half-brother to Multiple Grade I winner Guarana). This is "Blue Blood" sprinting.

• Form: Baffert has him primed. With JJ Hernandez in town to ride, the intent is high. He is the primary threat to the favorite and has the cruising speed to handle the 7F distance easily.

1 - Disco Time (8.3/10)

• Class/Form: A Juddmonte homebred by Not This Time. Brad Cox doesn't miss often on Derby Day.

• Pace: From the rail, Johnny V will have to send him or risk getting shuffled. He has the "zip" to hold his position. If the track is playing speed-heavy, he could be very dangerous.

7 - Imagination (8.0/10)

• Class/Value: Another Baffert/Into Mischief runner. While he has been campaigned at longer distances (San Felipe, Santa Anita Derby), dropping back to 7 furlongs for a $1M purse is a classic Baffert "power move."

• Pace: Flavien Prat is a master at rationing speed. Expect him to stalk the #6 and try to out-finish him late.

5 - Disruptor (7.5/10)

• Pedigree/Trainer: By Gun Runner, trained by Pletcher, ridden by Irad. On paper, he should be lower odds than 8-1.

• Form: He’s a bit of a "boom or bust" horse. If Irad gets him into a rhythm early, his class could carry him to a win, but his speed figures currently sit a notch below the top three.

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RACE 11

The Grade I Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic is the final championship test on the grass before the Derby. With a $1,500,000 purse and a distance of 1 1/8 miles, this race demands a combination of tactical speed and a powerful closing kick.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field of 10:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

6 Rhetorical 10 9 8 10 9.6

9 Test Score 9 10 7 10 9.2

4 Program Trading (GB) 8 9 8 9 8.8

10 Make Me King (FR) 8 8 9 8 8.4

3 Asbury Park (GB) 8 8 7 8 8.0

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Detailed Analysis

6 - Rhetorical (9.6/10)

• Form/Class: The 5/2 morning-line favorite is in peak form. A son of Not This Time, he is a Grade I winner (Turf Mile at Keeneland) and has a massive local advantage. Trained by William Walden and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., the "intent" here is crystal clear.

• Speed: Consistently produces triple-digit speed figures. He is making his second start of the year, which is historically the "peak" effort for this barn.

9 - Test Score (9.2/10)

• Speed/Class: Trained by H. Graham Motion, this horse is a "professional" in every sense. He holds some of the highest raw speed figures in the field and is coming off a massive performance.

• Pace: He is a versatile stalker. Manny Franco will likely sit just behind the leaders and wait for the "long stretch" at Churchill to make his move.

4 - Program Trading (GB) (8.8/10)

• Class: He won this race in 2024 and is a specialist at 9 furlongs. Trained by the turf master Chad Brown, you can never count him out.

• Value: At 4-1, he is a "tepid" second choice, but his experience in big-field turf battles at Churchill is a major asset.

10 - Make Me King (FR) (8.4/10)

• Pace: The "International X-Factor." Ridden by Jose Ortiz, this French-bred gelding has elite early speed. If he can clear the field from the outside post, he might be very difficult to catch if the turf is firm.

• Class: He’s been competing against the best in Dubai and France. While he hasn't won at this specific distance yet, his class is undeniable.

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RACE 12

This is it—the 152nd Running of the Kentucky Derby. The energy at Churchill Downs is electric as 20 sophomores prepare for the "Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports." At 1 1/4 miles (10 furlongs), we aren't just looking for speed; we’re looking for the heart and stamina to survive the "Derby roar" and a brutal final quarter-mile.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the top contenders in the 2026 field:

The 2026 Kentucky Derby Contenders

Post Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

18 Further Ado 10 9 8 10 9.6

6 Commandment 9 10 8 10 9.4

1 Renegade 9 9 6 10 8.8

9 The Puma 8 8 9 8 8.5

12 Chief Wallabee 8 8 7 9 8.2

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Detailed Analysis

18 - Further Ado (9.6/10)

• Form/Class: The winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) is peaking at exactly the right time. Trained by Brad Cox, this son of Gun Runner has the perfect "two-turn" stamina profile.

• Speed: He showed an explosive late kick at Keeneland, pairing a high speed figure with a visual dominance that suggests he wants every bit of the 1 1/4 miles.

• Value: Despite the wide draw at Post 18, he has the tactical speed to move toward the middle of the pack early. At 6-1, he is the most balanced horse in the race.

6 - Commandment (9.4/10)

• Class/Speed: The Florida Derby (G1) winner and a son of Into Mischief. He possesses the highest raw tactical speed in the field. Luis Saez will likely have him in the "catbird seat" (3rd or 4th) throughout.

• Pace: He is a "pressing stalker." He can take the heat of a fast opening half and still find another gear.

• Caution: Some analysts worry his win margins have shrunk as the distances increased, but his Class rating remains elite.

1 - Renegade (8.8/10)

• Form/Class: The morning-line favorite (4-1) and winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1). This Todd Pletcher trainee is 2-for-2 this year and is clearly a high-talent individual.

• The "Rail" Problem: Drawing Post 1 is a major handicap. No horse has won from the rail since 1986. Irad Ortiz Jr. will have to navigate a "gauntlet" of 19 other horses to find a clean path.

• Pace: He is a closer. If he gets pinned on the rail early, he may have too much traffic to overcome in the stretch.

9 - The Puma (8.5/10)

• Value/Pace: At 10-1, this is the "wise guy" horse. Trained by Gustavo Delgado (who won the '23 Derby with Mage) and ridden by Javier Castellano.

• Form: He was a hard-charging second to Commandment in the Florida Derby. He is "screaming for more ground," and the 10 furlongs should suit him perfectly.

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Race 13

The Race 13 Allowance Optional Claiming at 6 1/2 Furlongs on the dirt serves as the penultimate race of a long Derby Day. With a $127,000 purse, this sprint features horses that are just a notch below stakes caliber, looking to finish the day with a trip to the winner's circle.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

8 Classic Wine 9 9 8 9 8.8

3 Big City Lights 8 10 9 8 8.6

1 Bourbon Spirit 7 8 10 8 8.2

11 Incredible Luck 8 8 7 7 7.5

5 Ghostly Night 7 7 8 7 7.0

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Detailed Analysis

8 - Classic Wine (8.8/10)

• Form/Class: Coming off a very strong runner-up finish in a similar allowance at Keeneland. He is a model of consistency, having finished in the money in four of his last five starts.

• Speed: He consistently produces speed figures in the high 90s, which is the benchmark for this class level.

• Jockey/Trainer: Getting Tyler Gaffalione for the finale is a major plus. Gaffalione is a specialist at finding the right lane in late-day dirt sprints at Churchill.

3 - Big City Lights (8.6/10)

• Speed/Pace: This horse is the definition of a "Sling-Shot" sprinter. He has the highest raw speed in the field and will likely be the one forcing the issue from the jump.

• Class: While he’s faced slightly easier company in the past, his "power figures" suggest he can handle the step up to this $127k purse.

• Value: At 4-1, he is a dangerous horse to leave off any multi-race tickets.

1 - Bourbon Spirit (8.2/10)

• Pace/Form: Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux. The rail draw (P1) at 6 1/2 furlongs means he has to be aggressive.

• Class: He is dropping slightly from a minor stakes race into this allowance spot, which is a classic Cox "winning angle." He is fit and should be the one leading them into the stretch.

11 - Incredible Luck (7.5/10)

• Form: Coming off a career-best victory last month. He is "heating up" and getting Luis Saez in the irons—a jockey who rarely finishes the day without a win.

• Value: From the outside draw, Saez can watch the pace unfold and choose his moment to strike.

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Race 14

Let's wrap up the 2026 Derby Day card, we look at Race 14, the grand finale of an incredible day of racing. This is an Allowance Optional Claiming race at 1 1/16 Miles (8.5F) on the Turf for three-year-old fillies. It’s a "nightcap" that requires stamina and tactical awareness as the shadows grow long over the Churchill Downs grass.

Here is the objective point evaluation for the field:

The Top Contenders

P# Horse Form Speed Pace Class Overall Value (1-10)

1 Explora 9 10 8 9 9.1

2 Zany 10 9 8 9 9.0

10 Prom Queen 8 8 9 8 8.2

4 Counting Stars 8 8 7 8 7.8

12 Bella Ballerina 7 7 8 7 7.2

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Detailed Analysis

1 - Explora (9.1/10)

• Form/Speed: This Baffert-trained filly by Into Mischief has shown immense raw speed on the West Coast. Flavien Prat taking the mount from the rail suggests they want to be aggressive early.

• Class: While Baffert is known for dirt, his turf sprinters-turning-routers have a high strike rate. Her speed figures are the highest in this field, making her the horse to catch.

2 - Zany (9.0/10)

• Form/Class: A Todd Pletcher trainee and stablemate to many of today's winners. Irad Ortiz Jr. stays aboard, which is the ultimate "vote of confidence." She has won two in a row and seems to thrive at this specific 8.5-furlong distance.

• Speed: She possesses a "professional" cruising speed. She doesn't need the lead but will likely sit just a length or two off Explora (#1).

10 - Prom Queen (8.2/10)

• Pace: Brad Cox and Javier Castellano. This filly is the "stalker" threat. She has a powerful turn of foot and will likely be the one sweeping wide at the top of the stretch.

• Value: At 6-1 or 8-1, she is the primary alternative to the Pletcher/Baffert "chalk" at the top of the ticket.

4 - Counting Stars (7.8/10)

• Form: Trained by Mark Casse, a master of Churchill turf. She’s coming off a gritty win at Woodbine and has transitioned well to the Kentucky circuit. She’s a "course specialist" type who rarely runs a bad race.

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That concludes the 14-race Derby Day card! It's been a marathon of elite racing. Good luck at the windows!